Donald Trump is expected to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran and present a more controversial strategy against Tehran. The move will not withdraw the US from the deal, but it will give Congress 60 days to decide whether to do so by re-imposing sanctions.
Such a move would spark a wick that could eventually shake the whole deal in the air, raising questions about how Iran would react. And it will create huge diplomatic difficulties between the US and many of their key European allies who wholeheartedly support the deal.
The deal, which was negotiated with Iran by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, together with Germany and the European Union, was reached in July 2015. Its aim was to ensure that Iran's nuclear program absolutely peaceful.
It began to be implemented in January 2016. In return for the progressive lifting of a series of financial sanctions, Iran stopped some of its activities and reduced others within strict limits, and all are open for inspection by international inspectors.
Iran's compulsion to stop its nuclear activities as a whole was not feasible. Many of the restrictions imposed by the agreement contain "sunset clauses" and expire after some years, with no one to be sure what will happen next. But the worst they avoided. We must not forget that there was a genuine concern in the negotiation of the agreement that a deadlock could lead to a military conflict.
Israel pushed for military action. Many of Iran's Gulf Arab enemies in the Gulf quietly supported such a step, and there were questions about whether the US itself could use violence to prevent Iran from developing its nuclear weapons production capacity.
It was a situation that closely resembled the position the US is currently facing North Korea. The aim of the agreement was to limit Iran's nuclear activities to prevent the use of war.
The agreement related to Iran's nuclear program and nothing else. Iran does a lot of things that the US and its allies in Europe and the Middle East believe is detrimental to security in the region, but these are not included in the deal.
Surveillance of the agreement
Everyone believes that Iran is in line with what was agreed, but the United States wanted to exercise some supervision over the implementation of the agreement and voted for the Iranian Nuclear Reform Law (INARA), which requires the US president to certify every 90 days that Iran is complying and that the continued suspension of economic sanctions remains vital to the national interests of the United States.
So what happens now that Trab refuses to certify the deal, insisting that it is no longer in US interests to do so?
In practice, probably nothing. This is a multinational agreement that is maintained and will therefore remain active with or without Trump certification.
Naturally, the US president could simply impose some or all of the financial sanctions that have been removed from the deal, and that would certainly mean that the US no longer complies with its terms.
But the most likely scenario is that, according to INARA's legislation, the matter will go to the Capitol Hill to decide the US Congress. Here opinions differ, and at this stage it is not clear what Congress will do.
Will it re-impose some or all of the sanctions - withdrawing the US from the deal - or will it decide to save time by postponing a decision on the matter later? There are indications that some of the US politicians who were the most critical of the deal at that time are now reluctant to shake it in the air.
Problem for the West
Iran is still seen by the West and its allies as a major problem in the region. Surprisingly, the US itself has helped ease Iran's rise as a regional player through the destruction of Saddam Hussein in Iraq.
Iran has an important say in today's government dominated by the Shiites in Baghdad. Along with his political-military alliances, he is an important factor in the conflict in Syria. And it plays a role in the conflict in Yemen, although there is a debate about the scale of its activities there.
Add fear to its rocket programs and its supposed support for terrorism and you will see there are serious reasons for concern about its growing regional influence.
The nuclear agreement has not changed Iran's wider behavior. The activities of the Revolutionary Guard Corps and its efforts for missile research continued.
The agreement was never intended to deal with these broader issues. But in a basic sense, Trab seems to argue that Iran is not responding to the "spirit" of the deal, and that is why it has decided not to renew its power, stiffening the US attitude towards Tehran.
The president is likely to incorporate the non-approval of the agreement into a wider set of policies aimed at "punishing" Iran for its bad behavior.
Penalties of all kinds
New sanctions of all kinds are on the table, as a whole package of measures against Iran from both the US and the EU is already on a number of other subjects, separate from the nuclear program, such as terrorism or human rights abuses.
A proposal is for the US government to designate the entire Corps of the Revolutionary War Corps as a terrorist organization.
This military force also controls an important part of the Iranian economy. More sanctions could cause problems not only for Iran but also between the US and its allies who want to open up trade with Tehran.
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